Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs warns that the United Arab Emirates’ economic hubs face total devastation if the nation enters a regional conflict involving Iran.

The gleaming skylines of Dubai and Abu Dhabi could be reduced to rubble if the United Arab Emirates is drawn into a hot war between the United States and Iran. That is the grim assessment from Jeffrey Sachs, the world-renowned economist and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. Sachs delivered the warning during a recent briefing, pointing to the extreme vulnerability of the UAE’s highly concentrated urban infrastructure in the event of a high-intensity missile exchange.

It isn’t a matter of if the weapons exist, but where they would land. Sachs noted that the UAE’s economic model relies on its status as a safe, ultra-modern global hub. That status evaporates the moment the first battery of precision-guided missiles crosses the Persian Gulf. He argued that the Emirates, despite their advanced defense systems, cannot afford to become a frontline participant in a localized proxy war that escalates into a direct confrontation with Tehran.

The geography is the primary antagonist here. Dubai and Abu Dhabi sit within short-range strike distance of Iranian launch sites. While the UAE has invested billions in the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot missile systems, Sachs suggests that no shield is perfect against a saturated drone and missile swarm. One lucky strike on a desalination plant or a power grid could render these desert metropolises uninhabitable within days.

“Dubai and Abu Dhabi could be blown up,” Sachs stated plainly. He isn’t talking about a metaphorical economic collapse. He is talking about the physical destruction of the built environment that took half a century and trillions of dollars to construct.

The economist’s comments come at a time of heightened friction across the Middle East. Tensions between Washington and Tehran have frequently simmered near the boiling point, often leaving Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states caught in the middle. The UAE has spent the last few years attempting a delicate diplomatic pivot, de-escalating with Iran while maintaining a deep security partnership with the United States. Sachs argues that this balance is the only thing keeping the cranes moving in the Dubai Marina.

What happens to the global economy if the UAE is sidelined? The country isn’t just an oil producer; it’s the connective tissue for global trade, aviation, and finance between East and West. A strike on the Jebel Ali Port or Dubai International Airport wouldn’t just be a local tragedy. It would trigger a systemic shock to global supply chains that makes the 2008 financial crisis look like a rounding error.

Sachs has long been a critic of what he calls “neoconservative” foreign policy in the U.S., which he believes prioritizes military dominance over regional stability. He warned that the UAE must prioritize its own physical survival over any ideological or alliance-based pressure to join a military coalition against its neighbor. He suggested that the UAE’s leaders are well aware of this reality, even if the rhetoric from Washington occasionally ignores it.

The stakes are binary. One path leads to continued expansion as the world’s premier luxury and tech playground. The other leads to the kind of ruin seen in other regional capitals that were once called the “Paris of the Middle East” before the bombs fell.

Critics of Sachs’ view often point to the UAE’s robust military capabilities and the deterrent effect of the U.S. presence at Al Dhafra Air Base. They argue that Iran would not risk the total retaliation that would follow an attack on a GCC state. But Sachs’ counter-argument rests on the unpredictability of “total war.” In a cornered state scenario, traditional deterrence often fails, replaced by the logic of mutual destruction.

Can a city built on glass and ambition survive a neighborhood brawl? Sachs thinks not. He stressed that the UAE’s greatest defense isn’t a missile battery, but its neutrality.

For the millions of expatriates who call the UAE home, the prospect is more than academic. The country’s population is roughly 90 percent foreign nationals. At the first sign of genuine kinetic warfare, the exodus would be instantaneous. The capital flight would follow within hours. Without the people and the money, the infrastructure is just steel in the sand.

Sachs remains a polarizing figure in policy circles, but his record on identifying systemic risks usually carries weight. This latest warning serves as a cold shower for those who believe the Gulf’s prosperity is insulated from the ancient animosities of the region.

The UAE government has not issued a formal response to Sachs’ specific comments, but its recent diplomatic outreach to both Tehran and Damascus suggests a strategy aligned with his cautionary note. They know what they have to lose. And they know how quickly it can all go away.