Actor Vijay’s TVK threatens decades of Dravidian dominance as Axis My India projects a 120-seat shocker, while exit polls forecast a massive BJP Assam sweep. 

Actor Vijay’s TVK is tearing through Tamil Nadu’s political duopoly, with Axis My India projecting the newcomer could seize up to 120 seats and overthrow the ruling government. The exit poll numbers released today across five states reveal an electorate in the grip of massive upheaval. While Axis My India forecasts TVK capturing between 98 and 120 of Tamil Nadu’s 234 seats, Today’s Chanakya offers a slightly more traditional bet. They’ve projected Chief Minister MK Stalin’s DMK-led alliance will narrowly retain power with 125 seats, while assigning TVK a still-formidable 63 seats. It’s a debut that leaves the established AIADMK eating dust.  

But the old guard didn’t expect the sheer scale of this projected disruption. The AIADMK alliance practically flatlines in the Axis My India data, securing a mere 22 to 23 seats. The DMK-led coalition isn’t looking invincible in that same survey either, clinging to a precarious 92 to 110 seats against the 118 required for a majority. Is the political establishment genuinely underestimating the Vijay factor? Election analysts speaking to NDTV noted that voters who traditionally backed the legacy Dravidian parties are now quietly admitting their defection to the actor’s camp. They simply aren’t following the old scripts.  

The stakes couldn’t be higher following a historic voter turnout of 84.80 percent in Tamil Nadu on April 23. You can’t ignore the sheer momentum of this grassroots mobilisation. Over 17 crore voters cast ballots across 824 assembly constituencies spanning five states in this election cycle, but the ground-level intensity in the south stands apart. DMK spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai isn’t buying the tight-race narrative, projecting an absolute rout by his side. “In every exit polls, we are winning and this is a conservative estimate,” Annadurai stated in a social media broadcast. He claims they’ll secure over 180 seats.  

The AIADMK has flatly dismissed the projections, though they haven’t produced counter-data to soften the blow.  

And the aftershocks aren’t confined to Tamil Nadu. Up in Assam, the Bharatiya Janata Party is barrelling toward a massive second term under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Today’s Chanakya predicts the NDA will capture 102 of the 126 seats. They’re riding on a staggering 50 percent vote share. Axis My India echoes that dominance. They’ve placed the BJP-led alliance comfortably between 88 and 100 seats. The Congress-led opposition hasn’t found a foothold anywhere in the state. It’s a brutal reality check for a fragmented coalition that couldn’t match the BJP’s ruthless election machinery.  

Meanwhile, voters are redrawing the political map down in Kerala. Axis My India forecasts that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) will rout Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s Left Democratic Front (LDF) after a decade of rule. The UDF looks to win between 68 and 78 seats in the 140-member assembly, while the LDF trails at 49 to 62. Yet, oddly, the same exit poll indicates most voters still prefer Vijayan as chief minister. Today’s Chanakya describes the Kerala contest as a tight fight, but they’ve also given the UDF a distinct edge. The numbers don’t add up to a happy night for the incumbent Left.  

Over in Puducherry, the forecast stands entirely unambiguous. Data projects the NDA, led by the NR Congress, will effortlessly retain power. Axis My India data shows the alliance securing 16 to 20 seats in the 30-member house. The Congress alliance hasn’t managed to mount a serious challenge, languishing at a projected 6 to 8 seats. It’s a quiet victory that cements the NDA’s expanding footprint in southern territories where they’ve historically struggled.

But the most intense drama is playing out in West Bengal, where pollsters strongly disagree and citizens stay quiet. The state witnessed a massive 92.47 percent voter turnout—the highest since independence—amid reports of booth-level violence. Axis My India initially refused to release its Bengal data, with the founder citing an “atmosphere of fear” and stating voters were simply staying mum. Other pollsters couldn’t agree on a winner. Praja Poll predicts a massive BJP sweep with 178 to 208 seats, while Peoples Pulse projects Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress will hold the line with 177 to 187 seats. We aren’t seeing a consensus, just a reflection of a deeply polarised battleground.  

Banerjee herself hasn’t minced words about the electoral process. She told NDTV that “no booth is safe” amidst the poll-day clashes, highlighting the raw tension that defined the multi-phase voting. The Election Commission clearly isn’t taking chances, ordering 700 companies of central armed police forces to remain stationed in Bengal long after the ballots are cast. The sheer volume of security speaks volumes about the volatile aftermath they’re anticipating.

These early indicators obviously carry the standard polling caveats. Exit predictions have notoriously missed the mark before. Limited sample sizes and hidden voter intent regularly derail these early forecasts. The Election Commission won’t cement the actual outcome until they open the EVMs on May 4. Yet the numbers published by NDTV indicate a profound realignment across multiple regions. The established heavyweights haven’t faced a disruptor this ruthless in decades.  

So the upcoming vote count isn’t just about who occupies the chief minister’s office in these five states. It’s a referendum on the survival of India’s legacy political machines. The final tally will determine if a cinematic icon has successfully rewritten Tamil Nadu’s future and if the BJP has irreversibly conquered the east. The old guard won’t survive a miscalculation of this magnitude.