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First caste count in a century triggers Indian political storm

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Three million officials begin a yearlong digital survey to map 1.4 billion lives, reviving a century-old caste debate that could redraw India’s political map.

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Raipur, April 2, 2026 — India has finally pulled the trigger on history’s largest headcount.

Three million government officials began fanning out across 28 states and eight union territories on Wednesday. They’re tasked with a $1.24 billion mission: counting 1.4 billion people. It’s the first time the country has updated its official population data since 2011, and the delay has left a decade-sized hole in the nation’s planning.

The stakes aren’t just about numbers. They’re about power.

This census includes a comprehensive caste enumeration for the first time since 1931. For nearly a century, India avoided the question to prevent “social divisions,” as the 1951 government put it. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration is now moving forward with a count that critics fear will harden ethnic identities and supporters claim will finally bring “constitutional justice” to marginalized groups.

Registrar General and Census Commissioner Mritunjay Kumar Narayan confirmed the first phase, known as the House Listing and Housing Census, runs from now until September.

“How many people live in your house?” is the first of 33 questions.

It’s a digital-first operation. Enumerators are ditching paper for mobile apps. Citizens can self-enumerate through an online portal, generating a unique digital ID to hand over to officials. It’s high-tech, but it’s hitting a low-tech reality. Only about half of India’s population has smartphone access.

The logistical mountain is staggering.

Officials must reach 640,000 villages and 7,000 towns. In hilly or snow-bound regions like Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh, the count won’t even start until October 1. The rest of the nation is already moving.

But the real friction isn’t the technology. It’s the geography of the vote.

Constitutional mandates dictate that the first census after 2026 can be used to redraw Lok Sabha constituencies. This process, called delimitation, has southern states sweating. Population growth in the south has stalled while the north has exploded. If seats are redistributed purely by the new numbers, the north will gain outsized political muscle in Parliament.

Economist Ashwini Deshpande of Ashoka University told Al Jazeera that the five-year delay — blamed on the pandemic and administrative hurdles — has already damaged the country’s ability to function.

“All large-scale surveys rely on the census as their sampling frame,” Deshpande said. Without an accurate master list, every social survey in the last decade has risked being unrepresentative.

The second phase kicks off in February 2027. That’s when the heavy lifting starts.

Officials will gather data on education, migration, fertility, and the controversial caste metrics. The National Commission for Backwards Classes (NCBC) has developed a “State Caste Codebook 2026” to verify entries.

While the government insists the data is for “statistical tools” and not a legal document for individual benefits, the political class knows better. Data is the ammunition for the next generation of reservation quotas and welfare schemes.

The count is scheduled to wrap up by March 31, 2027.

By then, India will have a digital mirror of itself. Whether it likes what it sees — or whether the reflection cracks the country’s fragile regional balance — is the billion-dollar question.

The count has started. The consequences will last for decades.

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